Middle East Policy has been one of the world’s most cited publications on the region since its inception in 1982, and our Breaking Analysis series makes high-quality, diverse analysis available to a broader audience.
By Middle East Policy
The journal provides analyses of how the strongman’s foreign and military policies have affected the regional security order.
[Editor’s note: This article has been updated with the results of Turkey’s May 28 runoff election.]
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, facing the biggest test of his 20-year grip on power, has defied the pre-election polls to win a third term as Turkey’s president, defeating opposition challenger Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu in a runoff election. Erdoğan, whose popularity suffered in the face of the massive winter earthquakes and inflation above 40 percent, claimed nearly enough ballots to be re-elected outright in the initial vote.
Middle East Policy has provided extensive analyses of Turkey throughout Erdoğan’s ascendancy and consolidation of power, covering topics from foreign and defense policy, to anti-Americanism in politics and society, to the rise of nationalism in the country’s policies toward the Kurds and Syria.
Here are some of our most recent articles examining Erdoğan and Turkey:
This article demonstrates the growth of a nationalist strain of anti-Americanism among politicians and the public, a troubling sign for a return of Turkey to being a reliable ally of the West.
In addition, a more radical anti-Americanism has emerged, rejecting US values. The two strands together will make it difficult for the Turkish opposition to turn back toward the West, even if Kılıçdaroğlu prevails.
The authors probe the American and German decision to pull air-defense systems out of southern Turkey, which prompted Ankara to turn to Russian President Vladimir Putin for a replacement system, the S-400. In retaliation, the United States kicked Turkey out of the project to develop the F-35 fighter/bomber.
The authors argue that the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, a 2021 US law that has been used to oust Turkey from the F-35 program, is illegal under international law and against the interests of the United States. It will result in Turkey’s continued turn to the East, they write.
Şahin argues that Erdoğan is pursuing a “pan-Islamist” foreign policy that claims to act in the interests of Muslims throughout the world. However, the author shows, this has resulted in anti-Turkey coalitions of Middle Eastern and European states over its actions in Syria and in the eastern Mediterranean.
The analysis concludes that by isolating itself in the region, Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party leaves itself no choice but to pursue interests that overlap with Russia’s.
The scholar traces the development of a “vulgar, populist version of nationalism” driven by Erdoğan and the Justice and Development Party after a shocking loss in the 2015 parliamentary elections. Further, Özpek argues, Putin capitalized on “the irrationality at the heart of Erdoğan’s populist nationalism” and pushed Turkey to take actions in Syria that furthered Russian interests.
The author concludes by declaring that a seemingly domestic phenomenon like nationalism can lead authoritarians to undermine their own countries’ national security.
Kardaş explains how Erdoğan employed “hard power, coercive diplomacy, and an increasingly emboldened foreign-intelligence apparatus” in Iraq as part of a campaign to destroy the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The liberation of Mosul from ISIS forces and a failed bid for independence by Iraqi Kurds emboldened Ankara to launch military action across its border.
This policy, which some in Iraq rejected as an “invasion,” risked destabilizing Iraq, which was clearly not in Ankara’s interest. In addition, it increased tensions with Iran, which is at odds with Turkey on a range of issues across the Middle East and into the Caucasus.
Middle East Policy has been one of the world’s most cited publications on the region since its inception in 1982, and our Breaking Analysis series makes high-quality, diverse analysis available to a broader audience.
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By Middle East Policy
The journal provides analyses of how the strongman’s foreign and military policies have affected the regional security order.
[Editor’s note: This article has been updated with the results of Turkey’s May 28 runoff election.]
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, facing the biggest test of his 20-year grip on power, has defied the pre-election polls to win a third term as Turkey’s president, defeating opposition challenger Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu in a runoff election. Erdoğan, whose popularity suffered in the face of the massive winter earthquakes and inflation above 40 percent, claimed nearly enough ballots to be re-elected outright in the initial vote.
Middle East Policy has provided extensive analyses of Turkey throughout Erdoğan’s ascendancy and consolidation of power, covering topics from foreign and defense policy, to anti-Americanism in politics and society, to the rise of nationalism in the country’s policies toward the Kurds and Syria.
Here are some of our most recent articles examining Erdoğan and Turkey:
“Distrusted Partnership: Unpacking Anti-Americanism in Turkey,” by Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Ümit Erol Aras
This article demonstrates the growth of a nationalist strain of anti-Americanism among politicians and the public, a troubling sign for a return of Turkey to being a reliable ally of the West.
In addition, a more radical anti-Americanism has emerged, rejecting US values. The two strands together will make it difficult for the Turkish opposition to turn back toward the West, even if Kılıçdaroğlu prevails.
“F-35 Crisis: Will Turkish-US Defense Cooperation Continue?” by Cenk Özgen, Eren Alper Yılmaz, and Ozan Örmeci
The authors probe the American and German decision to pull air-defense systems out of southern Turkey, which prompted Ankara to turn to Russian President Vladimir Putin for a replacement system, the S-400. In retaliation, the United States kicked Turkey out of the project to develop the F-35 fighter/bomber.
The authors argue that the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, a 2021 US law that has been used to oust Turkey from the F-35 program, is illegal under international law and against the interests of the United States. It will result in Turkey’s continued turn to the East, they write.
“Turkey’s Foreign Policy in Post-Soviet Eurasia,” by Devrim Şahin
Şahin argues that Erdoğan is pursuing a “pan-Islamist” foreign policy that claims to act in the interests of Muslims throughout the world. However, the author shows, this has resulted in anti-Turkey coalitions of Middle Eastern and European states over its actions in Syria and in the eastern Mediterranean.
The analysis concludes that by isolating itself in the region, Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party leaves itself no choice but to pursue interests that overlap with Russia’s.
“How Russia Exploited Nationalism in Turkey to Expand Its Influence in Syria,” by Burak Bilgehan Özpek
The scholar traces the development of a “vulgar, populist version of nationalism” driven by Erdoğan and the Justice and Development Party after a shocking loss in the 2015 parliamentary elections. Further, Özpek argues, Putin capitalized on “the irrationality at the heart of Erdoğan’s populist nationalism” and pushed Turkey to take actions in Syria that furthered Russian interests.
The author concludes by declaring that a seemingly domestic phenomenon like nationalism can lead authoritarians to undermine their own countries’ national security.
“Turkey’s Military Operations in Iraq: Context and Implications,” by Şaban Kardaş
Kardaş explains how Erdoğan employed “hard power, coercive diplomacy, and an increasingly emboldened foreign-intelligence apparatus” in Iraq as part of a campaign to destroy the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The liberation of Mosul from ISIS forces and a failed bid for independence by Iraqi Kurds emboldened Ankara to launch military action across its border.
This policy, which some in Iraq rejected as an “invasion,” risked destabilizing Iraq, which was clearly not in Ankara’s interest. In addition, it increased tensions with Iran, which is at odds with Turkey on a range of issues across the Middle East and into the Caucasus.