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| Volume IX, December 2002, Number 4 |
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| EXCERPT: Reinventing Iraq: The Regional Impact of U.S. Military Action |
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| Judith Yaphe |
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Dr. Yaphe, senior research fellow and Middle East specialist at the Institute for National Strategic Studies, the National Defense University at Ft. McNair, wrote this memo at the end of September. Analysis and conclusions expressed are hers and do not reflect the views of the university, the Department of Defense or any other government agency.
As the United States prepares
for a military confrontation with
Iraq, several key questions
emerge regarding how we build support for that effort and sustain it through the difficult period after Saddam and his regime are "changed." In many ways, this will be more difficult and more important than the military attack. The issues are complicated by the competing national interests of Iraq’s neighbors in the composition and character of the successor government and their view of the role they, the United States, and other external powers should and must play in reconstructing Iraq. It will be hard to reconcile their demands for a pacific post-Saddam Iraq with those of Iraqis, who will have their own visions and definitions of life after Saddam and without fear. The national "interests" include conflicting political lifestyles, competing economies based on the same resource or lack thereof -- oil -- sectarian and tribal enmities, and level of comfort with a prolonged U.S. military presence in the region.
Following are preliminary thoughts on these issues. The thoughts are based on knowledge of Saddam and Iraq’s history and modes of behavior as well as the events of the past decade, with Iraq at war and under sanctions.
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