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| Volume IX, June 2002, Number 2 |
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| EXCERPT: Turkey-Iran Relations, 2000-2001: The Caspian, Azerbaijan and the Kurds |
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| Robert Olson |
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Dr. Olson is professor of history at the University of Kentucky.
Relations between Turkey and
Iran were dominated during
2000-2001 by issues relating to
the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan and the Kurds. Geostrategically, the Kurdish question was the most important for Iran. The potential for an American attack on Iraq in cooperation with Turkey, and the dissolution of the Baathist regime in Baghdad -- let alone a fragmented Iraq dependent on the United States for survival -- gave Tehran cause to worry. In such a senario Tehran's geopolitical position in Iraq would weaken. Iran would remain a strong player, but Turkey's ability to project power as a player in Gulf politics would increase considerably. Its increased presence in Iraq could extend its military reach some 250 km south and east along the Iraq-Iran border abutting the sensitive Kurdish and Azeri regions of Iran and enhance Turkey's role in Gulf politics. Other ramifications would follow.1 Turkish presence in Iraqi Kurdistan would not only exacerbate the transnational aspects of the Kurdish question between regions in Iraq and Iran but also heighten tensions between Iranian Kurdistan and Tehran. Tensions and more border conflict in the north would detract from Iran's ability to project power into the Caspian Sea region. Such developments would reduce further Iran's already deteriorating position vis-à-vis the bilateral delimitation agreements signed in 2001 by four of the riparian states -- Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan.
Tehran realized by the end of 2001 that, as a result of the events of September 11, Turkey's and Israel's relations with the United States had grown even closer. More ominous for Tehran, so had Russia's. By the end of 2001, Turkey had assumed a stronger position vis-à-vis Iran concerning the three issues discussed here. Furthermore, it seems likely that such developments will continue as a result of "America's war against terrorism," especially in Afghanistan, and Iran's non-cooperation with some of the objectives of U.S. policies.
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| 1 The potential problems created by such a projection of power on the part of Turkey are discussed in Robert Olson, The Kurdish Question and Turkish-Iranian Relations: From World War I to 1998 (Costa Mesa, CA: Mazda Press, 1998), pp. 77-87.
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