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| Volume VII, October 2000, Number 4 |
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| Editor's Note |
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For a printable pdf version of this article, click here.
This is the last issue of Middle East Policy to be published during the Clinton administration, a fateful near-decade for the Middle East. Little more than half a year into it, the Oslo process arrived unbidden from the Rabin-Peres government in Israel. It was a shortcut bypassing the more demanding Madrid Conference, generated by the Bush-Baker team after the war against Iraq in 1991. Whether Madrid would have led to a comprehensive settlement of the bitter disputes involving Israel cannot be known, but Oslo has not yet succeeded, despite the procrastinated "details" that remain to be negotiated: sovereignty, refugees, Jerusalem and an end to claims against Israel. Although most commentators are calling Jerusalem the most problematic issue, the demand that all legal redress be foreclosed would also seem difficult for the Palestinians to swallow. They expect the Israelis to admit some responsibility for the suffering of the people they displaced, and they are studying a useful precedent: the ongoing claims of Holocaust survivors to compensation from European countries and firms.
In 1992, the Gulf War and Iraq's threat to the oil supply were fading memories. Today, after a devastating military defeat, nine years of sanctions, regular bombardment, and, it is rumored, maybe even lymphatic cancer, Saddam Hussein is flexing some muscles again, this time those in his wrist. He is toying with the idea of turning down Iraq's oil tap, making Washington, the oil markets and Kuwait, among others, nervous. President Clinton has even released some of the nation's strategic petroleum reserves in order to ease anxiety and perhaps to neutralize the electorate's negative feelings about his energy stewardship. Domestic politics can be assumed to have been factored into his calculations. Having to pay more to satisfy their addiction has made consumers angry and quick to blame not only the administration but OPEC (for pumping while Arab?). How quickly we forget. In 1999, when the low price of fuel was luring Americans to buy gas-guzzling sport-utility vehicles, oil producers were facing bankruptcy and no consumer was feeling their pain.
With the oil markets in turmoil, the Iraqi strongman is off the hook again. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright has said the United States would not consider using force to reinsert weapons inspectors into Iraq. The last thing the administration wants to do right now is gin up the possibility of unrest in the key oil-producing region and risk driving prices still higher. The inspections charade was futile anyway. As one of the contributors to this issue, Isam al-Khafaji, says, it can never be proved that Iraq cannot manufacture WMD, but it is obvious that it could not deliver them. The al-Khafaji piece is part of the proceedings of a high-level conference, "The Future of Iraq," which took place in Cyprus in July, organized by Gulf/2000 of Columbia University. Gary Sick, director of the project, introduces the papers and highlights some of the key points made at this meeting. Middle East Policy is very pleased to be able to put the ideas of these policy makers and analysts into the public record. This opportunity came at an auspicious time, when interest in the Gulf is particularly acute.
Because finding and exploiting potential new energy sources has become more attractive now that oil is relatively expensive, the Council devoted the twenty-second symposium in our Capitol Hill conference series to the Caspian region -- Central Asia and the Caucasus. Geopolitics is another factor making that place worthy of attention: Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, Israel and the United States are all competing there to some degree. Our half-day conference attracted scores of interested parties from business, government and the media for an explanation of current U.S. policy toward the Caspian from U.S. Assistant Secretary of Energy David Goldwyn and critiques from three respected analysts (see proceedings on page 1). When we posted the transcript on our website soon afterward, we immediately began receiving three times the usual number of hits. I wish all of our readers could have been at the meeting to enjoy the lively exchange of ideas, but the incisive thinking comes through in the text. It is gratifying to be able to make it retrievable in polished form here.
The Caspian conference brought into sharp focus the problem of U.S. Iran policy, which is driven by ideology rather than economics. The United States insists on cutting Iran out of any benefits that might derive from energy resources in the neighboring area. Thus, the direct and more efficient pipelines have been rejected. Two articles on Iran are included with the Caspian symposium to fill in some gaps in understanding what is going on -- for better or worse -- in the Islamic Republic. Also in this section is an article on Afghanistan, another country in Central Asia that has occasionally been mentioned as a possible location for an Iranian-bypass pipeline route. Clearly, the political risk is prohibitive; that it is even being considered provides some insight into the bypass-Iran-at-all-costs policy.
A NEW PUBLISHING ARRANGEMENT
As of the beginning of 2001, when our next issue will appear, the Council is turning over the printing and marketing of this journal to Blackwell Publishers of London (and Boston), a company that enjoys a great deal of prestige. What made this possible is the journal's high ISI ranking (citations in other publications). Blackwell's came to us and made a convincing case for professionalizing the worldwide search for new institutional subscribers. We have a great many already, but the number is expected to double through promotion of the journal at international conferences and book fairs. This exponentially increased readership (each library subscription potentially serves hundreds of people) is important not only to us but to our writers. They deserve the increased international attention Blackwell's will be able to attract.
Thanks to modern technology, we will continue the editorial process as usual, submitting the journal text in computer files to Blackwell's in Boston by e-mail. They can also offer services such as copyediting and proofreading, but we plan to retain this responsibility, primarily in order to be able to set the deadline as near to the publication date as possible. Our turn-around time is now about two weeks; it will be five under the new system. Another change will involve the frequency of publication. As a cost-saving measure, we have been publishing three fat books a year while giving subscribers four for their money. Starting in January, 2001, we will publish four slimmer books a year, totaling about the same number of pages per volume. This more conventional schedule is expected by librarians and distributors and will better serve our individual subscribers as well.
Anne Joyce
October 2000
P.S. Be sure to note the new subscription information on the inside front cover and the back page ad of this issue.
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