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| Volume VII, June 2000, Number 3 |
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| Book Review |
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For a printable version of this book review, click here.
The Transformation of Palestinian Politics: From Revolution to State-Building, by Barry Rubin. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1999. 299 pages, with notes and index. $29.95, hardcover.
Guilain Denoeux
Associate professor of government, Colby College
The Transformation of Palestinian Politics is a natural extension of Barry Rubin's two previous works on Palestinian political history: The Arab States and the Palestine Conflict (Syracuse University Press, 1981), which focused on the pre-1948 period, and Revolution Until Victory? (Harvard University Press, 1994), which analyzed the history and politics of the PLO until 1993. In this new book, Rubin turns to the Palestinians' efforts at state-building since 1994. Writing about history in the making is always a difficult exercise, in part because it is conducive to overstating one's points and becoming entangled in current controversies. Rubin skillfully avoids these pitfalls to write a balanced and reasoned account of the transformation of the PLO from revolutionary movement to interim government. Drawing on first-hand observations and interviews as well as on a broad variety of sources in English, Arabic and Hebrew, the author has managed to write the most comprehensive and up-to-date analysis of the Palestinian polity available thus far.
The book is organized thematically, with separate chapters devoted to an overview of Palestinian political dynamics post-Oslo (Chapter 1), the Palestinian Legislative Council (Chapter 2), issues of democracy and human rights (Chapter 3), the relationship between the Palestinian Authority (PA) and the people (Chapter 4), the new Palestinian political elite (Chapter 5), and the opposition to the PA (Chapter 6). These chapters highlight the distinctive features of the political system, discuss key political players and their strategies, and contain a wealth of information about the composition, performance and roles of the cabinet, the executive branch agencies, the security forces, the Palestinian Legislative Council, the PLO's Executive Committee and Fatah's Central Committee. The chapter on the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC), in particular, contains the best analysis this reviewer has seen of the main political blocs found in the PLC and of that institution's overall strengths and weaknesses. Rubin concludes that the PLC's inability to act as a genuine, significant check on executive power has stemmed not only from Arafat's determination to protect the prerogatives of the PA, but also from the PLC's tendency to overreach. By overplaying its hand and adopting a confrontational stance -- repeatedly engaging in political battles it could not win and then being forced to back down -- the PLC compounded the loss of credibility already created by the failure of many of its members to develop ties to civil-society institutions, explain their actions to the public, and keep their constituencies informed about their work in the PLC. The PLC's inability to force Arafat to comply with or enact its decisions or resolutions, combined with the disregard for rules and procedures that frequently characterized its sessions, fueled the public perception of it as a largely ineffective institution.
In Chapters 7 and 8, Rubin turns to an analysis of the PA's foreign relations. Chapter 7 examines the relationship between the PA and Arab states, noting that since 1993 Arab states have done "surprisingly little to help the PA” (p. 138). The author observes that between 1993 and 1998, Arab states provided less than 9 percent of the foreign aid to the PA (60 percent of that amount coming from Saudi Arabia alone) and that "Norway alone sent more money than all the Arab states combined” (p. 144). Moreover, Arab regimes showed no inclination to use their (limited) political and economic leverage to push PA demands in international fora. Most of them did not even make the normalization of their relations with Israel explicitly dependent on the Jewish state's willingness to satisfy basic PA demands. In the end, "moderate states were stingy with aid and eager to avoid confrontation [with Israel], . . . [while] radical states denounced Arafat, opposed the peace process, denied help to the PA, and funded its Palestinian rivals” (p. 141). It is "sadly ironic,” Rubin concludes, "that after a half-century-long Arab and Muslim obsession with the issue, the Palestinians were largely abandoned when the real opportunity finally did come for them to build a state” (p. 139). Chapter 8 documents the radical changes that have affected Palestinian thinking about Israel and the United States since 1993. The author describes meticulously the "waning of Palestinian hostility toward Israel to an extent inconceivable before 1993,” noting that "even militant Palestinians [now use] Israel as their point of reference for democratic practices,” while "members of the new Palestinian elite also put a value on knowing Hebrew and having personal connections with Israel” (p. 168). The shift "from viewing the United States as a chief enemy . . . to becoming a virtual American client” (p. 8) has been no less spectacular. It is reflected in Arafat's strategy of relying on Washington to take his side in negotiations with Israel and in his heavy dependence on direct American assistance and Western aid brokered through U.S. efforts. Finally, Chapter 9 speculates about the future of the PA, the succession to Arafat and the transition to a state. That chapter includes a well-informed discussion of the assets and liabilities of those best positioned to replace Arafat as the head of the PA.
Throughout the book, Rubin emphasizes the daunting environment that has made Palestinian state-building one of the most difficult such experiences in history. The author clearly believes that when assessing this experiment, observers usually have been excessively critical, failing to take into account the enormous constraints under which it has unfolded. Thus, unlike post-colonial states, the PA enjoys neither formal independence and sovereignty nor control over its borders. Even in those limited and disconnected parts of the West Bank and Gaza that are nominally under its influence, the PA's actual power is greatly hampered by Israel's stranglehold over the movement of individuals and goods, by its right to supervise security in the areas under joint Israeli-PA rule, and by the presence of tens of thousands of Jewish settlers extremely hostile to the PA and what it represents. In addition, the best organized and most influential segment of the opposition to the PA refuses to accept the latter's legitimacy or the path it chose for seeking independence. This situation is exacerbated by the absence of democratic traditions and by the presence of a violent underground opposition that lacks any significant commitment to the system that has been built painstakingly since 1994. Compounding these political problems are a lack of natural resources, an extreme economic dependence on Israel and the donor community, and a wholly inadequate infrastructure. Rubin concludes that in light of such unusually hostile conditions for state-building, the PA's successes outweigh its failures. What ultimately matters, in his eyes, is that over a relatively short period and in the face of tremendous limitations and unusual pressures, Palestinians have been developing the institutional basis for a viable government and political system.
Rubin is particularly compelling in his refuting of the simplistic, yet commonly accepted, image of the PA as an authoritarian system led by an aspiring dictator. He certainly does not mean to downplay antidemocratic practices by the PA, the concentration of power in Arafat’s hands, serious human rights violations, the PA’s repeated attempts to intimidate or silence critics, and its frequent shutdown of newspapers or arrests of democracy activists. Indeed, he documents these phenomena meticulously. But, as he also notes, the opposition’s ability to speak relatively freely and criticize the PA’s policies openly does not square easily with the notion of a closed, repressive political system. He observes that even groups like Hamas, which not only have endeavored to sabotage the PA’s policies, but have called repeatedly for its overthrow while endangering its very existence through their actions, have been allowed to operate politically and run numerous social institutions. In fact, Arafat bent over backward to try to entice Hamas – as well as the PFLP, DFLP and Islamic Jihad – to take part in the January 1996 elections to the PLC. He has shown himself unwilling to impose a political line even on the faction he has headed for so long, Fatah.
Rubin argues that, given the radical and antidemocratic nature of the strongest opposition groups, the violence surrounding its state-building efforts, and the complications resulting from negotiations with Israel, the PA could in fact have pointed to the need for order, unity and discipline in order to justify imposing more control than it did. Instead, Arafat has made a conscious effort not to create permanent enemies and has shown himself willing to work with almost everyone, including some of his most vocal detractors. In general, the author observes, when faced with critics, Arafat has shown a preference for trying to co-opt, cajole or buy them off instead of repressing them. Partly by temperament and partly because of the decades he spent heading an organization that sought to govern itself by consensus, the Palestinian leader has endeavored to deal with the opposition by resorting as much as possible to persuasion and inducements as opposed to coercion. Besides, Rubin notes, in light of its limited resources, the PA could hardly have hoped to impose itself on a highly politicized and unruly society without securing some degree of consent from it. In any event, to Rubin, Arafat lacks “the personality of a ruthless tyrant systematically imposing his will"; instead, his style is “one of ceaselessly maneuvering, balancing and juggling factions and options" (p. 4). The author adds that, though “such a leader [is] not going to institute a Western-style democracy, . . . he [is] also less likely than most Third World leaders to foreclose the possibility of democracy by creating authoritarian institutions and a monolithic society" (p. 5).
Rubin is therefore very effective at capturing the complexity and, indeed, incongruities of PA politics. In this halfway house between authoritarianism and democracy, a frequently heavy-handed leader nevertheless tolerates a surprising amount of dissent and engineers frequent crackdowns all the time while refraining from any sustained effort to impose his will and root out dissent. To Rubin, this system is defined first and foremost by its pluralistic nature, as reflected in the existence of numerous factions spread across the entire political spectrum and reflecting a broad array of political choices. The author does not deny the regime’s frequent resort to repression; he adds, however, that the latter has been applied in a “sporadic and incomplete" manner and that “the PA [has] alternated between freedom of action for political competitors and pressure against them" (p. 25).
Similarly, Rubin observes that while the practice of holding people without trials is widespread, and while trials have been marked by numerous irregularities, human-rights groups have been able to speak against such abuses. In many if not most instances, the lack of due process in judicial proceedings has stemmed less from a determination to suppress dissent at any cost than from a fear that defendants, often radical Islamists guilty of terrorist acts, might be released by the courts after justifying their actions on political grounds. Similarly, serious abuses by the security forces reflect less an attempt by the regime to eliminate political opponents than the corruption and lack of professionalism found in these institutions, Arafat’s failure to impose discipline over them, and their leaders’ authoritarian personalities and propensity to use their power to settle scores with rivals and critics. Meanwhile, the PLC’s investigation into allegations of corruption by the PA, and its ability to compel ministers to come before it to answer charges of wrongdoings or mismanagement, showed the existence of avenues through which the fight for transparency and accountability can be conducted. Overall, Rubin concludes, “even a comprehensive survey of the PA’s actions against human rights and democracy [suggests] a pattern of sporadic abuses and harassment rather than a systematic attempt to crush the opposition, unfettered speech, academic freedom and other rights" (p. 45). What matters most to the author – and tends to be ignored by those who describe the PA as a system of personalized power characterized by a growing trend toward authoritarianism – is that the struggle for democracy is continuing and that Palestinians themselves are at the forefront of efforts to pressure the PA into improving its performance in such areas as political competition, inclusion, good governance and respect for the rule of law and human rights.
Looking ahead, Rubin agrees with those who believe that the peace process is irreversible. He notes that two factors have sustained overall progress despite numerous delays and setbacks: a recognition by the leadership on both sides that the price for walking away from a negotiated settlement is too high and the existence of a dynamic that no longer condemns Israeli-Palestinian relations to a zero-sum game. Significantly, Rubin argues, the struggle over the past few years has been about the price of a peace settlement, not about whether such a settlement should and will take place. Similarly, the key question nowadays is no longer whether there will be a Palestinian state, but how long it will take for that state to emerge (p. 201). One could of course remark that it is precisely the price that Israel is willing to pay for peace, and the scope of the Palestinian state’s sovereignty, that will determine whether or not peace has the strong foundations that it requires to survive the test of time. For all of Rubin’s optimism, how viable will a Palestinian state – and the peace based on it – be if the territory offered to establish it excludes a very large fraction of the West Bank? If its citizens must go through Israeli checkpoints when they travel from one part of their already small country to another? If their country’s economy remains at the mercy of Israel? If Israel supervises who enters and leaves it, and if individuals going in and out of the country continue to be subjected to frequently humiliating security searches by Israeli officers? Will such a “state" formed of disjointed enclaves separated by large, hostile Israeli settlements built on confiscated land be sufficient to satisfy Palestinian national aspirations? Or will it instead be a conduit for the expression of its population’s disillusionment, anger and sense of betrayal at having been “taken for a ride"? One wishes Rubin had dealt explicitly with such questions. Indeed, his attempt to speculate about the future while avoiding them seems surprising since the manner in which these issues will be addressed will largely determine whether the conflict will ultimately be resolved. Still, Rubin’s clearly written book provides an objective yet sympathetic account of the Palestinians’ attempt to develop a state. It is extremely rich in information, analysis and insights and should be considered required reading for all those interested in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Palestinian politics and comparative state-building experiences.
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