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| Volume XII, Summer 2005, Number 2 |
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| ABSTRACT: The Impact of Iran's Nuclearization on Israel |
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| Ehsaneh I. Sadr |
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Ms. Sadr is a graduate student in the department of government and politics at the University of Maryland, College Park.
This article identifies and systematically evaluates the likelihood of seven potential threats to the existence or interests of Israel presented by Iran's future accession to nuclear-power status. A nuclearized Iran is found to be unlikely to pose an existential threat to Israel, as (1) the doctrine of Mutually Assured Deterrence continues to hold; (2) Iran's rulers are unlikely to pass nuclear material on to terrorists whose actions they cannot control; and (3) they are also unlikely to step up conventional harassment of Israel for fear of escalation to nuclear warfare. The impact of Iran's nuclearization upon Israel's regional interests is also found to be less problematic than expected.
Although the regime-change option will be off the table, any increase in domestic political support for the Iranian regime is likely to be temporary: Iran's increased empowerment to pursue its own regional interests will not necessarily harm Israeli interests. And it will be many years before Iran's growing weapons stockpile forces the initiation of an expensive arms race. The article concludes that the common perception of the Islamic Republic as an irrational actor, as well as taboos regarding Israel's potential exposure to a second holocaust, obscures the generally pragmatic nature of Iran's foreign-policy decisions, thereby overestimating the likelihood of catastrophic consequences of its joining the nuclear club.
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