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| Volume XI, Spring 2004, Number 1 |
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| EXCERPT: Changing Dynamics of Turkey's U.S. and EU Relations |
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| H. Tarik Oguzlu |
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Dr. Oguzlu is a lecturer in the department of international relations at Bilkent University in Turkey.
One of the greatest challenges to
Turkey's foreign policy in the
post-Iraq War era concerns the
changing dynamics of Turkey-EU relations. In analyzing them, one needs to take into consideration that the dynamics of Turkey-U.S. and U.S.-EU relations have also been exposed to significant challenges in the aftermath of the war. First, from now on, Turkey's relevance to the United States will be dependent less on Turkey's military capabilities and geostrategic location, as used to be the case, and more on its identity. If the Americans were seriously committed to nation-building in predominantly Muslim societies, particularly those possessing the potential to nurture global terrorism, then Turkey's ideational and civilizational position would matter a lot. The true inclusion of a predominantly Muslim country in the community of developed liberal-democratic states would certainly strengthen the soft power of the United States in its fight against global terror. However, the degree of Turkey's attractiveness for American policy would increase if Turkey could solve its external and internal (mainly radical Islamist and separatist Kurdish movements) security problems through domestic pluralization and liberalization and thus reach a more stable relationship with the European Union. Such a Turkey would not only feel more self-confident but less burdened by its unbalanced relations with the United States. Second, it seems that there is now a serious crisis of confidence between the parties, mainly stemming from their divergent security interests. Third, the gradual drifting apart of the United States and the European Union in terms of their geopolitical priorities and assessment of security threats1 will likely affect the tone of Turkey's relations with Europe. The important questions are how the EU Defense and Security Policy will evolve and how it will relate to NATO's own transformation. The greater the convergence of these two processes and the more the United States and the EU view threats to their national security in similar terms, the easier it will be for Turkey to cooperate with the West. Turkey might find it difficult to synchronize its policies towards the EU and the United States, particularly if Turkey is exposed to diverging demands from each.
1 Robert Kagan, "Power and Weakness," Policy Review, 2002, http://www.policyreview.org/JUN02/kagan.html.
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