 |
| Volume X, Winter 2003, Number 4 |
| |
| EXCERPT: Middle Eastern Energy after the Iraq Wr: Current and Projected Trends |
| |
| Anthony H. Cordesman |
| |
Dr. Cordesman is Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
The Iraq War has removed a
tyrant, but it has had little impact
on the overall importance of
Middle Eastern energy -- except to cut short-term Iraqi production and create new uncertainties about Iraq's mid-term export capacity. Similarly, for all the talk of new U.S. energy policies and energy discoveries in other areas, there have been no meaningful changes in global and U.S. strategic dependence on Middle Eastern energy exports.
The Middle East dominates world energy exports today and will almost certainly do so for decades to come. This is true even if one assumes steady progress in conservation, major improvements in the supply of renewables, and major increases in energy supplies from gas, coal, nuclear power and renewables. There are many sources of global energy estimates, they use many different models, and they produce many different results. One of the most respected modeling efforts, however, is conducted by the Energy Information Agency (EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). It is one of the few modeling efforts that both is supported by large analytic resources and annually recalibrates its results based on its past results.
The EIA estimates for the period 2000-2025 reflect substantial average annual growth in global consumption of natural gas (2.3-3.5 percent), coal (0.6-2.2 percent), nuclear (0.7-1.3 percent) and renewables (1.6-2.4 percent). They expect major improvements in global efficiency and conservation, especially in the developing world, the former Soviet Union (FSU) and Eastern Europe. Even so, they project an average annual increase of 1.0-2.6 percent in the use of oil. The reference-case estimate is 1.7 percent.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) makes exactly the same estimate of an average annual increase in world oil consumption: 1.7 percent. Two other respected modeling efforts do not go as far into the future but do make estimates through 2015. The PIRA Energy Group estimates that oil consumption will go up by 1.8 percent per year, while Petroleum Economics Ltd. (PEL) estimates a rise of 1.6 percent. All estimates assume major increases in energy from natural gas, coal and renewables, although the IEA, PIRA and PEL all predict that the gain in nuclear energy will be much lower than the EIA projections.1
It is always possible to assume some technological breakthrough that will sharply reduce the need for oil, or some massive discovery outside the Middle East. Since the United States first sought to reduce its dependence on foreign oil as part of Project Independence in the early 1970s, various experts have promised the solution could come from offshore oil reserves outside the Middle East, fuel cells, shale oil, nuclear power, fusion, geothermal energy, wind, conservation and a host of other means. None of these promises, however, has paid off in altering the fundamental balance of energy supply or in reducing global economic dependence on Middle Eastern exports.
1 Energy Information Agency, International Energy Outlook, 2003, Washington, DOE/EIA-0484(2003), May 2003, pp. 18-27.
|
| |
|
