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| Volume X, Fall 2003, Number 3 |
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| EXCERPT: Libya and the United States: Elements of a Performance-based Roadmap |
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| Ronald Bruce St John |
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Dr. St John is the author of more than three dozen books and articles on Libya. His latest book is Libya and the United States: Two Centuries of Strife (Penn Press, 2002). He is a member of The Atlantic Council Working Group on Libya and the International Advisory Board of The Journal of Libyan Studies.
The Qaddafi regime today is
widely seen as a former rogue
state attempting to come in from
the cold. It appears in the best interests of the U.S. government to encourage and promote this metamorphosis. A number of articles have appeared over the last two years making the case for rehabilitation; those arguments will not be repeated here.1 Assuming a Libya-U.S. rapprochement would be a positive development, the unanswered question is how best to achieve this result. A performance-based roadmap offering incremental incentives in a step-by-step approach is the most promising option. It would build support in both countries for a gradual resumption of commercial and diplomatic relations. It would also demonstrate to other rogue states and the world that peaceful options to violent regime change exist, given modified policy behavior.
BILATERAL SANCTIONS REGIME
The bilateral sanctions regime imposed by the United States on Libya beginning in the mid-1970s is a multifaceted, interwoven and overlapping bundle of executive orders and congressionally mandated rules and regulations. A performance-based roadmap requires that clear, concrete steps -- not simply commitments or promises -- on one side be rewarded by agreed-upon, reciprocal steps on the other. Given the intricate and involved nature of the bilateral sanctions, the starting point in constructing the roadmap is to review the central provisions of the sanctions regime.
1 For example, see Ronald Bruce St John, "New Era in American-Libyan Relations," Middle East Policy, Vol. 9, No. 3, September 2002, pp. 85-93; Yahia H. Zoubir, "Libya in U.S. Foreign Policy: From Rogue State to Good Fellow?" Third World Quarterly, Vol. 23, No. 1, 2002, pp. 31-53; William H. Lewis, "The War on Terrorism: The Libya Case," Atlantic Council Bulletin, Vol. 13, No. 3, April 2002, pp. 1-4; and Ray Takeyh, "The Rogue Who Came in From the Cold," Foreign Affairs, May/June 2001, pp. 62-72.
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