The high-spirited Arab spring has turned, inevitably, into an uncertain and bloody summer. Though a return to the quiescence of the past is unlikely, hopes are not high for rapid democratic transformations, and economic shifts have all been for the worse. At least one can hope there will not be another Iraq — the country virtually destroyed, its middle and upper classes dead or in exile, its political orientation running counter to U.S. policy. Patience, however, is everywhere in short supply. It is hard to face the fact that, even in the most favorable of circumstances, building a new order will be the work of a generation, perhaps more, if it can be accomplished at all. Articles in this journal on efforts to create a new system are pertinent to the current struggles all over the region (see Ann Lesch, Erin Snider and David Faris, and Katherine Carroll, inside).

As can be seen in Libya, the "responsibility to protect" is a stop-gap; good will and bombing can do only so much. Power has to be contested on the ground by opposing local forces. Mistakes will be made, but each country has to be allowed to make its own. The three wars the United States is involved in all provide lessons to that effect, the latest being the assassination of a high-ranking Libyan general who was a leader of the rebel forces. It was a major loss that might have been avoided with less interference. There is more enthusiasm for U.S. participation in such conflicts, however, now that it can be done on the cheap by means of pilotless drones (see Leila Hudson on the attendant blowback this new tactic is already delivering).

In Iraq's western neighbor, Syria, the situation is dire, the regime going all out to maintain its grip on power, but perhaps the calamity of civil war can still be averted. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council states, having called on Bashar al-Asad to listen to reason, are now apparently abandoning him to his fate. The U.S. State Department was cautious initially, but now President Obama has called for regime change. Secretary Clinton had backed off a bit, to allow the regional powers to isolate the rogue. Obviously, a more benign leader and system would be desirable, but there is no one to hand the reins of power to. The opposition needs time to coalesce around a potential new force. At the moment, Asad is in control, chalking up victims all over the country and shocking even his allies with the brutality of his tactics. Protesters, caught in an agonizing dilemma, are still in the streets, afraid to go home, for fear of being picked off one by one, answering a knock on the door at midnight. Christians, Alawites and other minorities, in particular, despair for their future.

The U.S. government has hinted that it would like Turkey to take the lead in ushering the Asad regime out the door. And, just when Ankara was on the way to its strategic goal of "zero problems with the neighbors," Foreign Minister Davutoglu has also lost patience with the regime in Damascus. He was too slow for some American critics. The Washington Post, for example, ran an op-ed August 15 bewailing Turkey's drift away from the Western orbit. But is Turkey European enough to actually be accepted as part of the EU? That club had objected to a system in which the military is the final arbiter on constitutional matters. However, Turkey's independence is its greatest strength right now. Prime Minister Erdogan has even curbed the general staff's power, and four top generals have resigned. This may not be enough to smooth the way for Turkey's EU accession, despite its strong economy and stable secular democracy. But Turkey remains a model for the region and can perhaps even lead the way into the next phase of its history (see the article by Seymen Atasoy).

The old Arab order has been cracked open, clear enough; but what comes next? Amid the populist, nationalist, anti-government fervor has come renewed agitation for a real solution to the Palestine question. The mood in the region is more favorable than ever to Palestinian self-determination, whether negotiated with Israel or proclaimed at the United Nations in late September. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has said he will do just that. However, as Hussein Ibish put it at the Council's Capitol Hill conference in July, what Palestinian leaders actually prefer is a renewed U.S. effort to bring Israel into conformity with the longstanding international consensus — adjusted pre-June 1967 borders, a shared Jerusalem, nominal refugee return and compensation. This, of course, cannot happen before a second Obama term is secured, if then.

Israel is rightly fearful of the potential train of events, particularly as the Palestinians have apparently learned the virtues of nonviolent resistance. Jackson Diehl on The Washington Post's op-ed page August 15 fumed about the dastardly shrewdness of the Palestinian plan for mass protests just before the General Assembly meets on September 21. He fears the vote will "make Israel look isolated…and create at least the illusion of a triumph when Third World votes push the meaningless General Assembly resolution over the top." Diehl claims Israeli authorities "are engaged in intensive preparations aimed at avoiding violent clashes." Such Israeli restraint would be rare, as readers of Israel's Haaretz learn on a daily basis. However, Palestinian nonviolence is a new and potentially powerful weapon. Its legitimacy is obvious, but it would take unity and discipline to use it effectively.

A mass movement of peaceful resisters, some of whom will likely be killed, maimed or imprisoned for their trouble, requires dedicated coordination and the commitment of a whole community. It was tried in the first intifada a generation ago, when rock-throwing boys challenged Israeli soldiers. They were mowed down mercilessly. The man in charge at the time, Defense Minister Yitzhak Rabin, later apparently became convinced that Israel could not win such a confrontation, and he opted for negotiations when he became prime minister five years later. His assassination in 1995 ushered in a dark age. The recent upheavals indicate that there might be reason to hope for a new and more productive phase in the Palestinian-Israeli struggle for peace.

Anne Joyce
August 18, 2011